A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
